A significant majority of economists believe the United States is positioned to not only maintain but expand its productivity advantage over other major economies. A recent global survey points to the country's leadership in artificial intelligence, deep capital markets, and lower energy costs as the primary drivers of this sustained outperformance.
This outlook comes as data shows a stark divergence in economic efficiency, with U.S. labor productivity growing substantially since 2019 while key European economies have remained largely stagnant.
Key Takeaways
- Nearly 80% of economists surveyed expect the U.S. to maintain or increase its global productivity dominance.
- Artificial intelligence and a surge in business investment are identified as the main catalysts for U.S. growth.
- U.S. labor productivity has increased by 10% since 2019, contrasting sharply with stagnant growth in the Eurozone and the UK.
- Europe faces challenges including rigid labor markets, fragmented infrastructure, and lower investment in emerging technologies.
Economists See US Pulling Away
A global poll of 183 economists revealed a strong consensus on America's economic trajectory. A combined 79% of respondents anticipate the U.S. will either retain its current productivity advantage (31%) or widen the gap with the rest of the world (48%).
This confidence is rooted in tangible economic data. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), U.S. labor productivity—a key measure of economic output per hour worked—rose by 10% between 2019 and 2024. During the same period, productivity in the United Kingdom and the Eurozone saw little to no growth.
Jumana Saleheen, head of Vanguard’s investment strategy group in Europe, stated that U.S. productivity is set to “pull away from other developed market economies.” She credits this to the nation's dynamic capital markets, a flexible labor force, and a significant lead in emerging technologies like AI.
The AI and Investment Advantage
The driving force behind this economic divergence is a boom in technology-led investment, particularly in artificial intelligence. Economists view AI as the next major frontier for productivity gains, an area where the U.S. has established a commanding lead.
"AI and related digital technologies were the new productivity frontier, and the U.S.’s position as a leader in investment and development of these technologies will extend the U.S.’s productivity lead," said Nina Skero, chief executive of the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
Investment figures support this trend. Data from Oxford Economics shows that business investment in the U.S. surged by 24% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. In stark contrast, business investment in the Eurozone contracted by 7% over the same timeframe.
Investment at a Glance
- U.S. Business Investment: Up 24% (Q2 2025 vs. Q2 2019)
- Eurozone Business Investment: Down 7% (Q2 2025 vs. Q2 2019)
Europe and the UK Face Headwinds
While the U.S. accelerates, economists see Europe and the UK struggling with structural issues that inhibit growth. Saleheen noted that Europe risks “falling further behind,” with research and development still heavily concentrated in traditional sectors like automotive and pharmaceuticals rather than cutting-edge tech.
Structural Challenges for Europe
Economists point to several persistent issues constraining European productivity, including more rigid labor markets, fragmented infrastructure across the bloc, and capital markets that are less supportive of high-risk, high-reward technology ventures compared to the U.S.
For the UK, some experts believe the economic consequences of leaving the European Union have exacerbated the problem. Evarist Stoja, a professor of finance at the University of Bristol Business School, commented on the situation.
"While the US and others have made major strides in AI, the UK has spent much of the last decade chasing the Brexit tail, diverting attention and resources from innovation," Stoja explained.
The U.S. also benefits from what Martin Beck, chief economist at WPI Strategy, calls “structurally lower and more predictable energy costs than Europe and many Asian economies.”
Potential Risks and Global Competition
Despite the optimistic outlook, the path forward is not without potential obstacles. Some economists surveyed warned that the massive surge in AI investment could be part of a speculative “bubble.” A sharp market correction in the tech sector could negatively impact U.S. output and have ripple effects across the global economy.
Competition is also intensifying, particularly from Asia. According to the OECD, China holds the second-largest share of cumulative venture capital investment in AI since 2012, more than three times the total for the entire European Union.
Jagjit S Chadha, a professor of economics at the University of Cambridge, suggested that while other nations, especially in Asia, will advance, the U.S. advantage “will erode somewhat but will not be eliminated.”
Internal policies could also pose a threat. Economists highlighted risks from trade protectionism, restrictive immigration policies, and political instability as factors that could undermine long-term productivity growth. Robert Barbera of Johns Hopkins University warned that U.S. productivity gains from trade “have been traded away for chump change tariff revenues.”
However, the prevailing view among the majority of economists is that America's fundamental strengths in technology, finance, and labor flexibility will be enough to extend its economic lead for the foreseeable future.