Major technology and retail companies, including Amazon, Walmart, and Google, are developing artificial intelligence systems designed to automate online shopping. This emerging field, known as agentic commerce, could fundamentally change the more than $1 trillion U.S. e-commerce industry by using AI to make purchasing decisions for consumers.
OpenAI recently announced that its popular chatbot, ChatGPT, will soon allow users to buy products directly within the application. This move signals a significant acceleration in the race to create AI shopping agents that can understand user preferences, manage budgets, and execute transactions across the internet.
Key Takeaways
- Technology giants like Amazon, Walmart, Google, and Meta are investing heavily in AI-powered shopping assistants, a concept called "agentic commerce."
- OpenAI is enabling direct purchases through ChatGPT, partnering with platforms like Etsy and Shopify, which could create a new revenue stream and disrupt traditional online search.
- The U.S. e-commerce market exceeds $1 trillion annually, and AI agents are positioned to influence a significant portion of this spending.
- Challenges remain, including consumer trust, data privacy concerns, and the potential for retailers to lose direct relationships with their customers.
The Rise of Agentic Commerce
The concept of using technology to guide shopping choices is not new, but recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have made sophisticated AI agents a near-term reality. These agents aim to go beyond simple recommendations, acting as personalized shoppers that understand a user's needs, tastes, and financial constraints with high precision.
This shift is a primary focus for major players in technology and retail. "Every retailer is at least dipping their toes and figuring out how can we implement AI," said CFRA analyst Arun Sundaram. "It seems retailers are realizing this will likely apply to a lot more areas than initially thought."
The financial stakes are immense. According to eMarketer estimates, consumers in the United States spend over $1 trillion each year on e-commerce. This market also fuels the advertising businesses of Google and Meta, where e-commerce companies are major advertisers.
Rapid Growth in AI-Driven Shopping
An Adobe report from this summer highlighted the trend's acceleration, finding that referrals to e-commerce product pages from AI bots like ChatGPT increased by 4,700% year over year in July. "We are finding customers are increasingly trusting the insights and responses they get from LLMs," noted Adobe analyst Vivek Pandya.
OpenAI Enters the E-Commerce Arena
OpenAI's decision to integrate direct shopping into ChatGPT is a pivotal development. With more than 700 million weekly active users, the chatbot is a central figure in the current AI landscape. BofA Securities analysts estimate that ChatGPT will handle approximately 20 billion shopping-related messages this year.
The company announced a partnership with Etsy that will permit users to purchase goods from U.S. merchants without leaving the ChatGPT interface. A similar integration for Shopify merchants is also planned. OpenAI intends to collect a fee from these transactions, creating a new source of revenue to support its massive infrastructure costs.
The market reacted positively to the news, with Etsy's stock rising 16% and Shopify's stock gaining 6%. In contrast, Google's parent company, Alphabet, saw its stock decline by 1%, reflecting concerns about potential disruption to its search advertising business.
"The deal suggests competition between OpenAI, Google and Amazon will likely ramp in the race to become the leading Agentic AI starting place."
A New Foundation for Commerce
Beyond direct partnerships, OpenAI has launched an open-source tool called the Agentic Commerce Protocol. This initiative is designed to make it easier for other e-commerce platforms to connect with ChatGPT, potentially positioning the chatbot as a central hub for online shopping.
D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria described the move as a potential step toward "flipping the internet upside down." He suggested this could mark a shift away from human-navigated websites discovered through search engines toward a new model of chat-based discovery and purchasing.
Tech and Retail Giants Respond
Established leaders in retail and technology are not standing still. They are actively developing their own AI shopping tools to retain control over the customer experience and data.
Who is Building What?
- Amazon: Launched "Rufus," a shopping assistant for product questions and comparisons. It is also testing a "Buy For Me" feature that allows users to purchase items from other websites through the Amazon app.
- Walmart: Introduced "Sparky," an AI assistant with similar capabilities to Rufus. The company plans to add agentic features that can plan events, suggest gifts, and manage budgets.
- Google: Integrated new shopping tools into its Gemini chatbot, including virtual clothing try-ons and price tracking features.
- Meta: Is positioning its Meta AI as a recommendation tool and using its AI-powered Ray-Ban smart glasses to identify products in the real world.
The competition is creating a strategic battle over data. A late July report from The Information stated that Amazon has begun to limit the ability of AI bots from Google and others to crawl its website for product information. This move is designed to protect its vast repository of product data and customer reviews.
"No one wants to be where the AI agents are shopping at — everyone wants to build AI agents that do the shopping," wrote e-commerce analyst Juozas Kaziukenas in a LinkedIn post, summarizing the competitive dynamic.
Challenges and Consumer Adoption Hurdles
Despite the rapid technological development, the widespread adoption of agentic commerce faces several obstacles. Consumer habits are difficult to change, and trust in AI remains a significant concern.
A survey by KPMG this year found that 43% of U.S. consumers were uncomfortable with companies using generative AI to analyze their personal data for shopping recommendations. Issues like "hallucinations," where AI models provide incorrect information, also undermine confidence.
Furthermore, some experts believe the transition will be gradual. Pinterest CEO Bill Ready told analysts that the idea of an agent automatically buying everything for a consumer is part of a "very, very long cycle."
Forrester retail analyst Sucharita Kodali noted that AI shopping tools are most practical for large retailers with massive product catalogs. She pointed out that past attempts at tech-driven styling solutions have often failed due to a lack of complete data, such as the contents of a person's closet.
Impact on Payments and Advertising
The rise of AI agents will also create new challenges for the financial technology sector. The consultancy firm Edgar, Dunn & Co. projects the agentic commerce market could grow from $136 billion this year to $1.7 trillion by 2030. This growth will require new methods to prevent fraud and unauthorized purchases.
Payment giants like Mastercard and Visa, along with firms like PayPal and Affirm, are already developing tools for an AI-driven economy. Affirm CEO Max Levchin anticipates an "AI companion will be with you every step of the way, all the way through checkout."
The advertising model that underpins much of the internet is also set to evolve. As AI agents begin to intermediate the shopping process, there may be less direct traffic to e-commerce sites, potentially impacting the high-margin retail media advertising business, a key profit driver for companies like Amazon and Walmart.
"This is still very, very early innings here," concluded CFRA's Sundaram. "But everyone is thinking about how much they need to invest into this to stay relevant for the next 10-15 years because if they don't, they could certainly fall behind."
